Computer Sciences

A Model for Forecasting Characteristics of Floods Affecting the Value of the Caused Damage

Authors: Khamutova M. V., Kushnikov V. A.

According to GOST (State Standard) characteristics of floods are selected that have influence on the extent of damage. Forecasting of such characteristics will improve the efficiency of liquidation of floods effects. On the basis of formal apparatus of system dynamics that takes into account the casual relationships between modeled variables a mathematical model is developed to forecast characteristics of floods. A graph of cause-effect relations that exist between modeled characteristics is constructed.

Analysis of the Ways of Occurrence and Prevention of Critical Combinations of Events in Man-machine Systems

Authors: Bogomolov A. S.

Models, methods and algorithms are proposed for analyzing the processes of development and preventing critical combinations of events of various kinds that lead to accidents and catastrophes in man-machine and organizational systems. Critical combinations are combinations of events that are individually relatively harmless, but in combination lead to an accident. In technogenic systems, such events are individual operator errors, equipment failures and adverse environmental effects.