Cite this article as:
Bogomolov A. S. Prevention of Accidental Combinations of Events in the Control of Human-Machine Systems. Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Math. Mech. Inform., 2019, vol. 19, iss. 2, pp. 196-206. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1816-9791-2019-19-2-196-206
Prevention of Accidental Combinations of Events in the Control of Human-Machine Systems
In the work the problem of accidental combinations of events is investigated. An accidental combination of events is a set of defects in equipment, software and human errors, relatively non-dangerous separately but leading to an accident when they occur in a certain order at a certain time interval. Modern warning tools can parry mainly individual adverse effects and to effectively prevent critical modes it is necessary to provide mathematical analysis of systems for accidental combinations of events at different time intervals. The task of managing the prevention of accidental combinations of events is set as the task of the variational calculus on the conditional extremum. A method for solving the problem based on the analysis of failure trees and ways of successful operation is proposed. The given method allows selecting the minimum set of adverse events, the parrying of which makes it possible to reduce the likelihood of emergency combinations to a safe level. The properties of the paths of successful functioning were determined and proved including accurate estimates for their number which allows ranking tasks by time complexity and increasing the efficiency of their solution. Heuristic approaches were developed which allow to take into account the order of occurrence of events when managing the process of preventing their emergency combinations. The specified sequence of incidents are taken into account by allocating graphs and event aggregation. The obtained results are intended for use in decision support systems at various levels in managing the prevention of critical conditions and accidents of human-machine and organizational systems.
1. Makhutov N. A. Ranges of the Validity of Power Scaling Laws in the Description of Scale Effects of the Strength of Extended Elements of Machines and Structures // Journal of Machinery Manufacture and Reliability. 2013. Vol. 42, iss. 5. P. 364–373. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1052618813050075
2. Makhutov N. A., Reznikov D. O. A Criterion Base for Assessment of Strength, Lifetime, Reliability, Survivability, and Security of Machines and Man-Machine Systems // Journal of Machinery Manufacture and Reliability. 2017. Vol. 46, iss. 2. P. 132–141. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1052618817020108
3. Braglia M., Di Donato L., Zhang L., Gabbrielli R., Marrazzini L. The house of safety: A novel method for risk assessment including human misbehaviour // Safety Science. 2018.№ 110. P. 249–264. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.08.015
4. Avila S. Reliability analysis for socio-technical system, case propenepumping // Engineering Failure Analysis. 2015. № 56. P. 177–184. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2015.02.023
5. Bogomolov A. V., Sviridyuk G. A., Keller A. V., Zinkin V. N., Alekhin M. D. Information-logical modeling of information collection and processing at the evaluation of the functional reliability of the aviation ergate control system operator // 2018 Third International Conference on Human Factors in Complex Technical Systems and Environments (ERGO)s and Environments (ERGO). St. Petersburg, 2018. P. 106–110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ERGO.2018.8443849
6. Bogomolov A. V. The technique of unification of medical and biological effects of the combination of effects of physical factors. Sistemnyi analiz v meditsine (SAM 2016).
Materialy X mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii [Systems Analysis in Medicine (SAM 16): Proc. X Int. Sci. Conf.]. Blagoveschensk, 2016, pp. 23–26 (in Russian).
7. Makhutov N. A., Reznikov D. O., Khaziakhmetov R. Basic scenarios of terrorist attacks at hydropower engineering facilities // Risk Analysis, Dam Safety, Dam Security and CriticalInfrastructure Management : Proceedings of the 3IWRDD-FORUM / ed. I. E. Bueno. CRC Press/Balkema ; Taylor & Francis Group, 2011. P. 389–395.
8. Reznikov D. O. Technological and Intelligent Terrorism: Specific Features and Assessment Approaches // Comparative Analysis of Technological and Intelligent Terrorism Impacts on Complex Technical Systems. 2012. № 102. P. 45–60. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1- 61499-131-1-45
9. Reniers G. L. L., Audenaert A. Preparing for major terrorist attacks against chemical clusters: Intelligently planning protection measures w.r.t. domino effects // Process Safety and Environmental Protection. 2014. Vol. 92, iss. 6. P. 583–589. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2013.04.002
10. Zhang L., Landucci G., Reniers G., Khakzad N., Zhou J. DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation // Risk Analysis. 2018. Vol. 38, № 8. P. 1585–1600. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12955
11. Chen C., Reniers G., Zhang L. An innovative methodology for quickly modeling the spatialtemporal evolution of domino accidents triggered by fire // Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. 2018. № 54. P. 312–324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2018.04.012
12. Khakzad N., Khan F., Amyotte P., Cozzani V. Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks // Risk Analysis. 2013. Vol. 33, № 2. P. 292–306. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01854.x
13. Kadri F., Birregah B., Chatelet E., Cozzani V. The Impact of Natural Disasters on Critical Infrastructures: A Domino Effect-based Study // Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. 2014. Vol. 11, iss. 2. P. 217–241. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jhsem-2012-0077
14. Bogomolov A. S., Ivashchenko V. A., Kushnikov V. A., Rezchikov L. Yu., Tsvirkun A. D., Tsesarskiy L. G., Filimonyuk L. Yu. Modeling complex for critical events combinations analysis in aviation transport systems. Control Sciences, 2018, iss. 1, pp. 74–79 (in Russian).
15. Rezchikov L. Yu., Kushnikov V. A., Ivashchenko V. A., Bogomolov A. S., Filimonyuk L. Yu. Models and Algorithms of Automata Theory for the Control of an Aircraft Group // Automation and Remote Control. 2018. Vol. 79, iss. 10. P. 1863–1870. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0005117918100107
16. Filimonyuk L. Yu. The problem of critical events’ combinations in air transportation systems // Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. 2017. № 575. P. 244–254. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57261-1-38
17. Rezchikov L. Yu., Kushnikov V. A., Ivashchenko V. A., Bogomolov A. S., Filimonyuk L. Yu., Sholomov K. I. The Dynamical Cause-effect Links’ Presentation in Human- machine Systems. Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Math. Mech. Inform., 2017, vol. 17, iss. 1, pp. 109–116 (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1816-9791-2017-17-1-109-116
18. Bogomolov A. S. Analysis of the Ways of Occurrence and Prevention of Critical Combinations of Events in Man-machine Systems. Izv. Saratov Univ. (N. S.), Ser. Math. Mech. In- form., 2017, vol. 17, iss. 2, pp. 219–230 (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.18500/1816-9791-2017-17-2-219-230
19. Ostreikovsky V. A., Shevchenko Y. N., Yurkov N. K., Kochegarov I. I., Grishko A. K. Time Factor in the Theory of Anthropogenic Risk Prediction in Complex Dynamic Systems // Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 2018. Vol. 944. P. 012085. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/944/1/012085
20. Ostreikovsky V. A. Matematicheskie metody i modeli tekhnogennogo riska v teorii bezopasnosti atomnykh stantsiy [Mathematical methods and models of technogenic risk in the theory of safety of nuclear power plants]. Kurgan, Kurganskii Dom Pechati, 2017. 448 p. (in Russian).
