дерево отказов

Prevention of Accidental Combinations of Events in the Control of Human-Machine Systems

Authors: Bogomolov A. S.

In the work the problem of accidental combinations of events is investigated. An accidental combination of events is a set of defects in equipment, software and human errors, relatively non-dangerous separately but leading to an accident when they occur in a certain order at a certain time interval. Modern warning tools can parry mainly individual adverse effects and to effectively prevent critical modes it is necessary to provide mathematical analysis of systems for accidental combinations of events at different time intervals.

Analysis of the Ways of Occurrence and Prevention of Critical Combinations of Events in Man-machine Systems

Authors: Bogomolov A. S.

Models, methods and algorithms are proposed for analyzing the processes of development and preventing critical combinations of events of various kinds that lead to accidents and catastrophes in man-machine and organizational systems. Critical combinations are combinations of events that are individually relatively harmless, but in combination lead to an accident. In technogenic systems, such events are individual operator errors, equipment failures and adverse environmental effects.

The Dynamical Cause-effect Links’ Presentation in Human-machine Systems

Authors: Rezchikov A. F., Kushnikov V. A., Ivashchenko V. A., Bogomolov A. S., Filimonyuk L. Y., Sholomov K. I.

A method of presentation variable cause-effect links for modeling processes in dynamic systems is proposed. Such a representation corresponds to the changing conditions that are associated with the action of many diverse factors that accompany the functioning of complex human-machine systems. The presence or absence of a causal relationship between the individual events in the proposed model is defined as a result of a set of stochastic or deterministic functions.